Joes Valley predictions

What’s your guess for when and at what flow Cottonwood Creek will peak this year?

Ha ha, is there a prize for best guess?
I hope it doesnt go off when everything else is going also.
I see they have drawn it down about 10 feet in the last month; to 6,962 feet elevation. I believe top of pool capacity is around 6,990.50 elevation.
Its 57% full;
http://www.ewcd.org/reservoirs/teacup-diagram/
Last June it went from 6972 to full in two weeks of peak runoff, and that was a heavy runoff (18 feet of res level; that is more than a foot a day). Started spilling around June 14; ~230-250; brief spike to ~350.
~28 feet to go right now; that would take 4 weeks of peak runoff (which could be starting with the heat this Thursday-Friday and forward.
I'm gonna say a spike to 450 on June 3, 2011.

NOAA’s predicting the likely peak of the San Rafael as 2400 CFS which is 780% of last years peak on 6/16. The Joes Valley release peaked last year at 350 on 6/17. Huntington peaked last year at 360 on 6/7. Ferron peaked above it’s reservoir at 1100 on 6/5.

Emery Water must be drawing down reservoirs in anticipation of the runoff. Joes Valley has the largest capacity for the SR basin so seems like it’d be the last to fill. I wonder if that means Cottonwood Creek might end up with the lowest flows to limit SR peak.

Here’s the JV inflows forecast:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/flowplot/flowplot.cgi?jovu1

It’ll be interesting to see the May’s update to the Outlook:
http://www.ut.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/watersupply/wsor/2011/wsor_carb_0411.pdf

The last comparable year to this one was 2005. The graph shows the release then.

What’s a good level? I know it’s been done less than 200 CFS, but I’ve been told that 200 is “fairly bony with lots of bumpin”. My Nichols says 300’s a minimum.

I ran it today in the L'Edge, with 9 others at 243cfs and it was GTG. Could more water be good, yeah.. but it was a hoot just the same. I wouldn't call it bony and I wasn't bumping much at all. Excellent run!